根据高盛2026年5月29日研报《鼓价上涨——当前定价了哪些预期》最重要的三个观点如下：According to Goldman Sachs' research report dated May 29, 2026, titled "Stock Price Rise – What Expectations Are Currently Priced In", the three most important views are as follows:
一、港鼓内房股此轮上涨由基本面企稳驱动，已合理反映复苏预期核心依据：2026年3月底至5月27日，覆盖房企平均涨6%，优质国企开发商平均涨17%，中国海外发展（COLI）、华润置地（CRLand）涨幅约30%；本轮上涨并非短期政策刺激，而是一线楼市房价企稳带来的基本面改善。量化验证：乐观情景下，COLI与CR Land 现金 ROE 提升对应的鼓价涨幅，已基本覆盖 3月底以来的累计涨幅，当前估值具备合理性。
The recent rise of Hong Kong-listed mainland property stocks is driven by fundamental stabilization and has reasonably priced in the recovery expectations.Core rationale: From late March to May 27, 2026, covered developers rose 6% on average, quality state-owned enterprise (SOE) developers rose 17% on average, while China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI) and China Resources Land (CR Land) rose about 30%. This round of increase is not driven by short-term policy stimulus, but by fundamental improvements from price stabilization in first-tier housing markets.Quantitative validation: Under an optimistic scenario, the stock price increase corresponding to the rise in cash ROE of COLI and CR Land has already largely covered the cumulative increase since late March, suggesting current valuations are reasonable.
二、17 城“领先城市圈”接力沪深，2027 年迎来房价拐点城市筛选：基于人口、收入、购买力、供给四大支柱框架，在沪深之外新增 15 个核心一二线城市，形成 17 城领先阵营；该阵营贡献全国超 40% 地产销售额、近 55% 房产交易、超 90% 上市房企市值。复苏节奏：参考 2014-2015年周期，领先城市房价拐点较沪深滞后4-5个月，预计 2027年迎来转正；优质国企超 2/3 可售Zi源布局于此，将优先受益。
The 17‑city "leading urban cluster" takes over from Shanghai and Shenzhen, with a housing price inflection point arriving in 2027.City selection: Using a four‑pillar framework of population, income, purchasing power, and supply, 15 core first‑ and second‑tier cities are added to Shanghai and Shenzhen to form a 17‑city leading group. This group accounts for more than 40% of national real estate sales, nearly 55% of property transactions, and over 90% of listed developers' market capitalization.Recovery pace: Referring to the 2014‑2015 cycle, the price inflection point in leading cities lags Shanghai and Shenzhen by 4‑5 months, and is expected to turn positive in 2027. More than two‑thirds of quality SOE developers' sellable resources are allocated to these cities, making them primary beneficiaries.
三、乐观情景下中国海外发展、华润置地仍有显著上行空间，商业板块成增量亮点。住宅端：17 城 2028 年底前房价有望上zhang 15%，推动两家房企 2028 年现金利润较 2026年分别扩张超 30%、50%。商业端：CRLand 约 45% 利润来自商场运营，财富效应将带动租金与零售收入增长；SOTP估值显示，乐观情景下中国海外发展、华润置地较 5 月 27 日收盘价分别有52%、76%上行空间。
Under an optimistic scenario, COLI and CRLand still have significant upside, with the commercial segment serving as an incremental highlight.Residential side: Housing prices in the 17 cities are expected to rise 15% by the end of 2028, pushing the two developers' cash profits in 2028 to expand by more than 30% and 50%, respectively, compared to 2026.Commercial side: About 45% of CRLand's profits come from mall operations, where wealth effects will drive rental and retail revenue growth. SOTP valuation shows that under an optimistic scenario, COLI and CRLand have upside of52% and 76%, respectively, from their closing prices on May 27.
整体总结高盛认为本轮内房股上zhang是基本面驱动的理性修复，而非短期炒作；复苏将从沪深扩散至17个领先城市，优质国企开发商是核心受益标的；在房价企稳与商业消费回暖的乐观情景下，头部房企仍有较大估值修复空间，持续性取决于楼市基本面实际兑现程度。Overall summary：Goldman Sachs believes the current rise in mainland property stocks is a rational, fundamental‑driven recovery rather than short‑term speculation. The recovery will spread from Shanghai and Shenzhen to 17 leading cities, with quality SOE developers as the core beneficiaries. Under an optimistic scenario of stabilizing housing prices and recovering commercial consumption, leading developers still have substantial valuation room for repair. The sustainability, however, depends on the actual realization of fundamental conditions in the property market.
