根据高盛研报《Alibaba Group: 4QFY26 Earnings First Take》关于阿里巴巴最重要的三个观点如下：Based on Goldman Sachs' research report "Alibaba Group (BABA): 4QFY26 Earnings First Take"，the three most important viewpoints regarding Alibaba are as follows:一、整体业绩基本符合预期，利润受AI投入拖累显著营收端：集团总营收同比增3%，略低于高盛预期；电商客户管理收入同比增1%，剔除商家激励记账调整后实际增8%，表现稳健。利润端：集团EBITA同比暴跌84%，大幅低于市场共识；非GAAP每股收益同比降95%，核心原因是AI相关投入激增，其他业务亏损扩大至212亿元（同比扩大175%），主因春节期间通义APP获客、AI模型研发及通证中心布局的大额支出。资本开支：269亿元，同比增9%但低于预期，整体控制合理。I. Overall performance largely met expectations, while profits were significantly dragged down by AI investments.Revenue side: The group's total revenue increased by 3% year-on year, slightly below Goldman Sachs' expectations;ecommerce customer management revenue increased by 1% year-on-year, and actually increased by 8% after excluding adjustments for merchant incentive accounting, showing steady performance. Profitside:The group's EBITA plummeted by 84% year-on year, significantlybelow marketconsensus; non-GAAP earnings per share decreased by 95%year-on-year. The core reason is the surge in AI related investments, withlosses in other businesses expanding to 21.2 billion yuan (a year-on-year expansion of 175%), primarily due to heavy expenditures on user acquisition for the Tongyi app, AI model R&D, and the layout of the token center during the Spring Festival.Capital expenditure: 26.9 billion yuan, an increase of 9% year-on-year but lower than expected, with overallcontrol remaining reasonable.
二、云业务高增且AI占比突出，成为核心增长引擎增长与盈利：阿里云收入同比增38%、EBITA同比增40%，利润率9.1%，增速环比回升，符合预期。AI贡献亮眼：AI业务占外部云收入30%，连续11个季度三位数增长；模型工作室客户同比增8倍，商业化加速。全栈AI落地：通义模型、平头哥自研芯片（10万+真武PPU部署）、通义APP（4月MAU超1.58亿并接入淘宝）形成完整布局，技术与应用协同推进。
II. Cloud business grew rapidly with a prominent AI share, becoming the core growth engine.Growth and profitability: Alibaba Cloud's revenue increasedby 38% year-on-year, and EBITA increased by 40% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 9.1%. The growth rate rebounded quarter-on-quarter, in line with expectations. Bright contribution from AI: AI business accounted for 30% of external cloud revenue, with doubledigit growth for 11 consecutive quarters; customers of the model studio increased by 8 times year-on-year, accelerating commercialization. Full stackAI implementation: A complete layout has beenformed by the Tongyi model, THead's self-eveloped chips (deploymentof 100,000+ Zhenwu PPUs), and the ongyi app (MAU exceeded158 million in April and integrated into Taobao), with coordinatedprogress in technology and application.
三、高盛维持“买入”评级，聚焦AI战略与云商业化两大核心关注点评级与目标价：维持买入，目标价186美元/ 180港元，核心逻辑是AI长期价值释放与核心电商现金流支撑。财报电话会核心关注点：新财年战略：平衡淘宝天猫份额、AI资本开支（超年度EBITA）与模型投入规模；云商业化：定价/框架调整、通证中心锁定长期企业客户、MaaS收入结构（通义vs第三方模型）；盈利与风险：云涨价的利润提振、平头哥芯片效率价值、淘宝天猫2027财年利润前景，核心风险为电商GMV放缓、云增长不及预期。
III. Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating, focusing on two core concerns: AI strategy and cloud commercialization. Rating and target price: MaintainsBuy, with a target price of USD 186 / HKD 180. The core logicis the long-term value release of AI and the cash flow support from thecore e-commerce business. Core concerns of the earnings conference call: New fiscal year strategy: Balancing the market share of Taobao andTmall, AI capital expenditure (exceeding annual EBITA), and the scale of model investment;Cloud commercialization: Pricing/framework adjustments, locking in long-term enterprise customers through the token center,and MaaS revenue structure (Tongyi vs. third-party models); Profitability and risks: Profit boost from cloud price increases, efficiency value of T-Head chips, profit outlook for Taobao and Tmall in fiscal year2027. The core risks are the slowdown of ecommerce GMV and cloudgrowth falling short of expectations.
总结阿里巴巴2026财年Q4呈现“稳营收、弱利润、强云AI”的格局：传统电商基本盘稳健，利润短期承压于AI战略投入；云业务成为增长核心，AI商业化与全栈布局进展超预期。高盛看好其长期价值，后续核心看点在于AI投入转化效率、云业务长期合同落地及电商现金流对AI投入的持续支撑。Conclusion: Alibaba'sQ4 of fiscal year 2026 presented a pattern of "steady revenue, weak profits, and strong cloud AI": the fundamental base of traditional e-commerce remained robust, while profits faced short-term pressure from strategicAI investments; the cloud business became the core of growth, withAI commercialization and full-stack layout progressing beyond expectations.Goldman Sachs is optimistic about its long-term value, and thesubsequent core highlights lie in the conversion efficiency of AI investments,the implementation of long-term contracts in the cloud business,and the continuous support of e-commerce cash flow for AIinvestments. 
