高盛研报《中国2026展望：探索新增长引擎》
China 2026 Outlook: Exploring New Growth Engines
序言｜Preface
高盛研究部于2026年1月5日正式发布年度旗舰报告《中国2026展望：探索新增长引擎》。
Goldman Sachs Research officially released its flagship annual report China 2026 Outlook: Exploring New Growth Engines on January 8, 2026.
本报告由高盛中国宏观经济与股票策略核心团队联合撰写，基于2025年全年宏观数据、政策执行情况与全球经贸环境变化，对2026年中国经济进行全维度分析与预测，覆盖增长、国际收支、货币财政、通胀、房地产、消费就业、股票市场与人民币汇率八大领域，面向全球机构投资者、政策研究人士与市场专业人士。
This report is jointly compiled by Goldman Sachs’ core team of China macroeconomics and equity strategy. Based on full-year 2025 macro data, policy implementation and global economic and trade environment changes, this report provides a comprehensive analysis and forecast of China’s economy in 2026, covering eight areas: growth, balance of payments, monetary and fiscal policies, inflation, real estate, consumption and employment, equity market and RMB exchange rate. It is intended for global institutional investors, policy researchers and market professionals.
本报告核心撰写团队如下：
The core authoring team of this report is as follows:
闪辉
Hui Shan
首席中国经济学家，董事总经理。2011年加入高盛，长期负责中国宏观经济、货币政策、汇率与国际收支研究，拥有哥伦比亚大学经济学博士学位。
Chief China Economist, Managing Director. Joined Goldman Sachs in 2011, focusing on China’s macroeconomy, monetary policy, exchange rate and balance of payments research. PhD in Economics from Columbia University.
安德鲁·蒂尔顿
Andrew Tilton
首席亚太经济学家，全球新兴市场研究主管，拥有普林斯顿大学经济学博士学位。
Chief Asia-Pacific Economist, Head of Global Emerging Markets Research. PhD in Economics from Princeton University.
刘劲津
Kinger Lau
首席中国股票策略师，董事总经理。专注中国A股与港股市场策略研究、行业配置与盈利预测，拥有香港大学金融学硕士学位。
Chief China Equity Strategist, Managing Director. Specializes in A-share and Hong Kong stock strategy research, sector allocation and earnings forecasts. Master of Finance from the University of Hong Kong.
陈新全
Xinquan Chen
中国宏观经济学家，专注经济结构转型、产业政策与新增长动能研究，拥有麻省理工学院经济学博士学位。
China Macroeconomist, focusing on economic structural transformation, industrial policy and new growth drivers. PhD in Economics from Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
理查德·布伦
Richard Bullen
全球宏观经济学家，负责中国与全球经济联动分析，拥有哈佛大学经济学博士学位。
Global Macroeconomist, responsible for analysis of China and global economic linkages. PhD in Economics from Harvard University.
一、经济增长与国际收支
1. Economic Growth and External Balance
高盛将2026年中国实际GDP增速预测定为4.8%，这一水平显著高于市场一致预期的4.5%。报告明确指出，2026年中国经济增长将呈现外需保持韧性、内需缓慢修复、房地产拖累逐步收窄的整体特征，经济运行保持总体平稳。
Goldman Sachs forecasts China’s real GDP growth at 4.8% in 2026, notably higher than the market consensus of 4.5%. The report clearly states that China’s economic growth in 2026 will be characterized by resilient external demand, gradual recovery of domestic demand and a narrowing drag from the property sector, with overall stable economic performance.
从增长动力结构来看，净出口依然是最主要的支撑力量，制造业产业链优势与全球市场多元化布局共同支撑出口保持稳健增长。与此同时，房地产行业对经济的负面拉动较2024—2025年明显减弱，基建投资保持平稳，制造业投资在产业升级与政策支持下实现温和回升。
In terms of growth drivers, net exports remain the most important support. The advantages of the manufacturing industrial chain and the diversified layout of global markets jointly support steady export growth. Meanwhile, the negative pull of the property sector on the economy has weakened significantly compared with 2024–2025, infrastructure investment remains stable, and manufacturing investment rebounds moderately amid industrial upgrading and policy support.
2026年中国出口量增速将维持在5%至6%的区间。出口韧性主要来源于制造业竞争力持续提升、全球供应链布局持续优化、新兴市场需求稳步增长，以及在新能源、电动汽车、电子信息等关键产业链的优势地位不断巩固。非美市场已经成为拉动出口增长的核心力量。
China’s export volume growth will remain in the range of 5% to 6% in 2026. Export resilience mainly stems from the continuous improvement of manufacturing competitiveness, the continuous optimization of the global supply chain layout, the steady growth of demand in emerging markets, and the continuous consolidation of the advantageous position in key industrial chains such as new energy, electric vehicles, and electronic information. Non-US markets have become the core force driving export growth.
在国际收支方面，报告做出了显著高于市场预期的判断。中国经常账户顺差占GDP比重将从2025年的3.6%上升至2026年的4.2%，这一数据远高于市场主流预测水平。顺差扩大主要来自货物贸易顺差提升、服务贸易逆差持续收窄，以及海外投资收益稳步改善。
On the balance of payments, the report gives a judgment significantly higher than market expectations. China’s current account surplus as a percentage of GDP will rise from 3.6% in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026, far higher than the mainstream market forecast. The expansion of the surplus mainly comes from the increase in the goods trade surplus, the continuous narrowing of the services trade deficit, and the steady improvement in overseas investment income.
商品与服务出口共同构成对外需求的核心支撑，两者对GDP增长的贡献在2026年将维持在历史偏高区间，成为经济增长的重要稳定器。在全球主要经济体中，中国经常账户顺差规模与占比均处于领先位置，与部分发达经济体的逆差格局形成鲜明对比，体现出中国制造业体系的持续竞争力。
Exports of goods and services together form the core support for external demand, and their contribution to GDP growth will remain at a historically high range in 2026, becoming an important stabilizer for economic growth. Among the world’s major economies, China leads in both the size and proportion of current account surplus, in sharp contrast to the deficit pattern of some developed economies, reflecting the continuous competitiveness of China’s manufacturing system.
二、政策取向与通胀展望
2. Policy Stance and Inflation Outlook
2026年中国宏观政策将延续宽松基调，货币政策与财政政策协同发力，整体支持力度略高于市场此前预期。政策的核心目标是稳定经济增速、缓解结构转型压力、培育新的增长动能、防范重点领域风险，同时兼顾长期高质量发展的要求。
China’s macroeconomic policies will maintain an accommodative tone in 2026, with monetary and fiscal policies working in coordination. The overall support intensity is slightly higher than previous market expectations. The core policy objectives are to stabilize economic growth, ease structural transformation pressure, foster new growth drivers, prevent risks in key sectors, and uphold the requirements of long-term high-quality development.
货币政策方面，央行将保持稳健偏宽松的取向，通过降息、降准、中期借贷便利等多种政策工具组合，保持银行体系流动性合理充裕，引导金融机构加大对实体经济的信贷投放力度，重点降低小微企业、制造业、科技创新领域的融资成本。
On monetary policy, the central bank will maintain a prudent and accommodative stance. Through a combination of various policy tools such as interest rate cuts, RRR cuts, and medium-term lending facilities, it will maintain reasonably ample liquidity in the banking system, guide financial institutions to increase credit investment in the real economy, and focus on reducing financing costs for small and micro enterprises, manufacturing, and technological innovation.
财政政策将更加积极主动，通过扩大广义财政赤字规模、优化地方政府专项债使用、提高政府消费与有效投资水平，对冲居民消费偏弱与民间投资不足的局面。财政资源将进一步向民生保障、产业升级、基础设施补短板等领域倾斜，提升政策的精准性与有效性。
Fiscal policy will be more proactive. By expanding the scale of the augmented fiscal deficit, optimizing the use of local government special bonds, and increasing the level of government consumption and effective investment, it will offset the situation of weak household consumption and insufficient private investment. Fiscal resources will be further tilted towards livelihood security, industrial upgrading, and infrastructure shortcomings to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of policies.
社会融资规模增速将从2025年的8.5%小幅提升至2026年的8.8%，信贷结构持续优化，中长期贷款占比稳步提高，资金重点流向科技创新、绿色发展、数字经济、先进制造与小微企业领域，金融对实体经济的支持力度持续增强。
The growth rate of aggregate financing to the real economy will rise slightly from 8.5% in 2025 to 8.8% in 2026. The credit structure will be continuously optimized, the proportion of medium and long-term loans will increase steadily, and funds will focus on technological innovation, green development, digital economy, advanced manufacturing and small and micro enterprises. Financial support for the real economy will continue to strengthen.
通胀水平在2026年仍将保持温和状态。全年居民消费价格指数CPI维持在0.6%，受猪肉价格、服务消费修复、大宗商品价格波动的影响均较为有限。工业生产者价格指数PPI通缩压力从2025年的-2.6%缓解至-0.7%，工业领域价格逐步企稳，有望在2027年初恢复同比正增长。
Inflation will remain moderate in 2026. The annual consumer price index (CPI) will stay at 0.6%, with limited impact from pork prices, service consumption recovery, and commodity price fluctuations. The deflationary pressure of the producer price index (PPI) will ease from -2.6% in 2025 to -0.7%, industrial prices will gradually stabilize, and are expected to return to positive year-on-year growth in early 2027.
三、消费、劳动力市场与结构性约束
3. Consumption, Labor Market and Structural Constraints
2026年居民消费仍然面临多重压力。劳动力市场恢复节奏偏慢、工资增长乏力、房地产市场调整带来的财富效应减弱、居民预防性储蓄意愿偏高，共同压制居民消费能力与消费信心，服务消费修复节奏慢于预期，商品消费保持弱复苏态势。
Household consumption will still face multiple pressures in 2026. The slow recovery of the labor market, weak wage growth, the weakened wealth effect brought by the real estate market adjustment, and the high willingness of residents to save preventively jointly suppress household consumption capacity and confidence. The recovery of service consumption is slower than expected, and commodity consumption maintains a weak recovery trend.
2025年第三季度城镇名义工资同比增速已经放缓至3.8%，为疫情之外近十年较低水平。实际工资增长更为温和，居民可支配收入增速低于GDP增速，收入端修复明显滞后于生产端恢复，这是制约消费持续回升的核心原因。
The year-on-year growth rate of urban nominal wages slowed to 3.8% in the third quarter of 2025, a relatively low level in the past decade excluding the pandemic period. Real wage growth is more modest, the growth rate of residents' disposable income is lower than the GDP growth rate, and the recovery of the income side lags significantly behind the production side, which is the core reason restricting the sustained recovery of consumption.
劳动力市场整体活力不足，传统行业吸纳就业能力下降，房地产、教育培训、线下服务等行业就业压力仍然存在，新兴产业尚未形成足够的就业支撑规模。青年就业压力较前期有所缓解，但结构性就业矛盾依然突出。
The overall vitality of the labor market is insufficient, the employment absorption capacity of traditional industries is declining, employment pressure still exists in industries such as real estate, education and training, and offline services, and emerging industries have not yet formed a sufficient employment support scale. Youth employment pressure has eased compared with the previous period, but structural employment contradictions remain prominent.
政策层面会推出针对性举措稳定就业和收入，包括支持劳动密集型行业发展、完善社会保障体系、扩大失业保险覆盖范围、加强职业技能培训、推动公共部门岗位扩容等。但报告明确，这些措施只能缓解短期压力，无法快速改变深层的结构性约束。
Policies will introduce targeted measures to stabilize employment and income, including supporting the development of labor-intensive industries, improving the social security system, expanding the coverage of unemployment insurance, strengthening vocational skills training, and promoting the expansion of public sector positions. However, the report clearly states that these measures can only alleviate short-term pressure and cannot quickly change deep-seated structural constraints.
向消费和服务驱动型经济转型是长期过程，需要居民收入、经济结构与制度环境的持续协同改善。2026年居民消费增速会有所放缓，政府消费将成为重要补充力量，整体消费对经济增长的贡献保持基本稳定。
The transition to a consumption and service-driven economy is a long-term process that requires the continuous and coordinated improvement of household income, economic structure and institutional environment. Household consumption growth will slow down in 2026, government consumption will become an important supplementary force, and the overall contribution of consumption to economic growth will remain basically stable.
四、房地产拖累减弱但市场尚未触底
4. Property Sector Drag Diminishes but Bottom Not Reached
中国房地产市场已经进入连续五年的深度调整周期，新开工、销售、投资、土地购置等核心指标较2020—2021年的历史高点大幅回落，行业整体处于出清、债务重组与风险化解的阶段，市场出清过程尚未完成。
China's real estate market has entered a five-year in-depth adjustment cycle. Core indicators such as new starts, sales, investment, and land purchases have dropped sharply from the historical highs in 2020–2021. The industry as a whole is in the stage of clearing, debt restructuring and risk resolution, and the market clearing process has not yet been completed.
报告明确指出，房地产市场在2026年尚未触底。高库存、部分房企融资压力持续、居民购房信心不足、城镇化速度放缓、人口结构变化等多重因素叠加，供需失衡的格局尚未得到根本扭转，市场恢复仍需要较长的时间周期。
The report clearly states that the real estate market will not bottom out in 2026. The superposition of multiple factors such as high inventory, continuous financing pressure of some real estate enterprises, insufficient residential purchasing confidence, slowing urbanization speed, and demographic changes, the pattern of supply-demand imbalance has not been fundamentally reversed, and the market recovery still requires a long time cycle.
全国房价在2026年仍可能继续下行约10%，城市间分化态势进一步加剧，一线与核心二线城市具备相对韧性，三四线城市调整压力更为显著。实际住房价格预计在2027年逐步企稳，市场逐步进入弱平衡状态。
National housing prices may still fall by about 10% in 2026, and the divergence between cities will further intensify. Tier-1 and core Tier-2 cities have relative resilience, and Tier-3 and Tier-4 cities face more significant adjustment pressure. Real housing prices are expected to gradually stabilize in 2027, and the market will gradually enter a weak equilibrium state.
房地产对GDP增长的拖累将逐步收窄，从2024—2025年的近2个百分点降至2026年的1.5个百分点，并在后续年份持续减弱。报告认为，现有政策可以缓解行业流动性风险、稳定市场交易、保障房屋交付，但难以快速改变行业长期存在的供需错配、债务积压与发展模式转型等结构性问题。
The drag of real estate on GDP growth will gradually narrow from nearly 2 percentage points in 2024–2025 to 1.5 percentage points in 2026, and will continue to weaken in subsequent years. The report believes that existing policies can alleviate industry liquidity risks, stabilize market transactions, and ensure housing delivery, but it is difficult to quickly change the long-standing structural problems of the industry such as supply-demand mismatch, debt overhang and development model transformation.
五、股票市场与投资主题
5. Equity Market and Investment Themes
高盛对2026至2027年中国股市维持超配判断，市场正式进入盈利驱动的上行周期。估值低位修复与企业盈利改善将共同推动市场上行，A股与港股均具备中长期配置价值，市场整体波动率较2024年明显下降。
Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight view on China's equity market for 2026–2027, and the market has officially entered a profit-driven upward cycle. Low valuation repair and corporate profit improvement will jointly drive the market upward, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have medium and long-term allocation value, and the overall market volatility has decreased significantly compared with 2024.
2026年上市企业盈利增速将大幅提升至14%，较2025年的4%实现显著改善，盈利修复呈现全行业扩散的特征。上游资源品、制造业、科技硬件、互联网与金融板块盈利改善幅度最为明显，当前市场估值处于历史偏低水平，具备充足的中长期修复空间。
The profit growth rate of listed enterprises will jump sharply to 14% in 2026, a significant improvement from 4% in 2025, and the profit recovery is characterized by diffusion across all industries. The profit improvement of upstream resource products, manufacturing, technology hardware, Internet and financial sectors is the most obvious. The current market valuation is at a historically low level, with sufficient medium and long-term repair space.
报告提出三大结构性投资主线。第一是人工智能商业化落地，算力基础设施、算法应用、产业智能化升级将带动全产业链盈利提升，AI成为中国经济长期增长的核心新动能。
The report puts forward three structural investment themes. The first is the commercialization of artificial intelligence. Computing infrastructure, algorithm applications, and industrial intelligent upgrading will drive profit improvement across the entire industrial chain, and AI will become a core new driver of long-term growth of the Chinese economy.
第二是中国企业全球化加速，高端制造、新能源、汽车、机械、电子等行业的海外收入占比持续提升，企业盈利结构不断优化，国际竞争力持续增强，全球化成为企业成长的重要路径。
The second is the accelerated globalization of Chinese enterprises. The proportion of overseas income in high-end manufacturing, new energy, automobiles, machinery, electronics and other industries continues to increase, the corporate profit structure is continuously optimized, international competitiveness continues to enhance, and globalization has become an important path for corporate growth.
第三是行业秩序优化，供给侧改革持续深化、行业竞争格局改善、成本压力逐步缓解，共同推动传统行业利润率逐步修复，周期类与消费类板块具备阶段性配置机会。
The third is industry order optimization. The continuous deepening of supply-side reforms, the improvement of industry competition pattern, and the gradual easing of cost pressure jointly promote the gradual repair of profit margins in traditional industries, and cyclical and consumer sectors have phased allocation opportunities.
板块层面相对看好科技硬件、互联网、保险与材料领域。中国股市与美股相关性较低，可为全球投资组合提供显著的分散配置价值，外资长期配置意愿将逐步回升。
At the sector level, it is relatively optimistic about technology hardware, Internet, insurance and materials. China's stock market has a low correlation with the US stock market, which can provide significant diversified allocation value for global portfolios, and the long-term allocation willingness of foreign capital will gradually rebound.
六、汇率展望
6. Currency Outlook
报告对未来12个月人民币汇率持温和乐观判断，人民币对美元有望小幅升值约3%，美元兑人民币目标价位为7.0。人民币汇率将呈现双向波动、稳中有升的运行格局。
The report holds a cautiously optimistic view on the RMB exchange rate in the next 12 months. The RMB is expected to appreciate modestly by about 3% against the US dollar, with a USD/CNY target of 7.0. The RMB exchange rate will show a pattern of two-way fluctuations and a steady rise.
支撑人民币汇率的核心因素包括：经常账户顺差维持高位、中国出口竞争力保持稳定、人民币有效汇率处于偏低水平、国内稳增长政策效果逐步显现、跨境资本流动趋于均衡。
The core factors supporting the RMB exchange rate include: the current account surplus remains high, China's export competitiveness remains stable, the RMB effective exchange rate is at a low level, the effect of domestic growth stabilization policies gradually emerges, and cross-border capital flows tend to be balanced.
人民币稳中有升的格局，有利于改善外资配置中国资产的意愿，降低输入性价格波动，稳定市场预期，为跨境投资、外债管理、外贸结算与国内资产价格运行提供稳定的外部环境。
The steady and rising pattern of the RMB is conducive to improving the willingness of foreign capital to allocate Chinese assets, reducing imported price fluctuations, stabilizing market expectations, and providing a stable external environment for cross-border investment, foreign debt management, foreign trade settlement and domestic asset price operation.
结语｜Conclusion
2026年中国经济将实现4.8%的增速，依靠出口韧性与政策宽松实现平稳运行，经济增长质量持续提升，结构进一步优化，新旧动能转换取得阶段性进展。
China's economy will achieve a growth rate of 4.8% in 2026, achieving stable operation relying on export resilience and policy easing. The quality of economic growth continues to improve, the structure is further optimized, and phased progress has been made in the transformation of old and new growth drivers.
房地产对经济的拖累逐步减弱，但市场全面复苏仍需时间，行业风险化解进入常态化阶段。消费与就业市场存在短期压力，经济结构转型过程仍将持续，宏观政策将保持连续性与稳定性。
The drag of real estate on the economy has gradually weakened, but the full recovery of the market still takes time, and the resolution of industry risks has entered a normalized stage. The consumption and employment markets face short-term pressure, the economic structure transformation process will continue, and macro policies will maintain continuity and stability.
股票市场在盈利修复与三大主线驱动下具备中长期投资价值，人民币温和升值，经常账户顺差超预期成为全年宏观经济亮点，中国经济在全球主要经济体中仍保持相对领先的增长表现。
Driven by profit recovery and three major themes, the stock market has medium and long-term investment value. The RMB appreciates moderately, and the above-expectation current account surplus becomes a highlight of the annual macro economy. China's economy still maintains a relatively leading growth performance among the world's major economies.
中国经济正处在新旧动能转换的关键阶段，政策将持续支持经济转型与高质量发展。投资者可聚焦人工智能、产业全球化和盈利修复三大主线，把握结构转型过程中的长期结构性机会。
China's economy is in a critical stage of the transformation of old and new growth drivers, and policies will continue to support economic transformation and high-quality development. Investors can focus on the three main lines of artificial intelligence, industrial globalization and profit restoration, and seize long-term structural opportunities in the process of structural transformation.
高盛2026中国展望官方报告链接：
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/chinas-economy-expected-to-grow-in-2026-amid-surging-exports
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-global-economy-forecast-to-post-sturdy-growth-in-2026
https://www.scribd.com/document/979249412/China-2026-Outlook-Exploring-New-Growth-Engines
