根据高盛5月19日研报《阿里巴巴 (BABA)：亚洲 Communacopia+科技大会要点:AI驱动云业务加速,Maas 迎来规模化发展》
According to Goldman Sachs' research report dated May 19, "Alibaba (BABA): Key Takeaways from Asia Communacopia + Technology Conference: AI Drives Cloud Acceleration, MaaS Achieves Scaled Development"
关于阿里巴巴最重要的三个观点如下：
The three most important viewpoints regarding Alibaba are as follows:
一、AI与 MaaS 成为阿里云增长核心引擎，规模与盈利同步提速
1. AI and MaaS have become the core growth engines of Alibaba Cloud, with both scale and profitability accelerating simultaneously.
阿里云 Al相关收入增长强劲，MaaS API是核心驱动力。上季度 Al 产品收入占云外部收入 30%，预计一年后升至 50%；长期目标明确，阿里云 +Al外部收入力争五年内达 1000亿美元。百炼 Maas 平台兼顾自研与第三方模型，当前年化经常性收入 (ARR)达80 亿元，6 月财季目标 100 亿元、财年末冲刺 300 亿元。同时自研模型迭代带来 API提价空间，直接支撑未来利润率扩张。
Revenue from AI-related products on Alibaba Cloud has shown strong growth, with the MaaS API serving as the core driver. In the last quarter, AI product revenue accounted for 30% of external cloud revenue, which is expected to rise to 50% within a year. The long-term goal is clear: striving for 100 billion in external revenue from Alibaba Cloud + AI within five years. The Bailian MaaS platform supports both proprietary and third-party models. Its current Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) stands at 8 billion RMB, with a target of 10 billion RMB for the June fiscal quarter and a sprint towards 30 billion RMB by the end of the fiscal year. Meanwhile, the iteration of proprietary models creates room for API price increases, directly supporting future margin expansion.
二、自研算力（平头哥芯片） +CPU 优势，构筑长期利润率护城河
2. Proprietary computing power (T-Head chips) combined with CPU advantages builds a long-term moat for profit margins.
算力供给采用自建 +租赁双模式，自研平头哥芯片（主攻推理）是利润增长关键。管理层强调，扩大自研芯片使用是长期利润率提升的核心抓手。此外，Al 智能体兴起推动 CPU 与GPU 配比提升，CPU 需求增长及定价上行将进一步提振利润，而阿里在 CPU 云领域拥有多年技术积累与建设经验，具备先发优势。
Computing power supply adopts a dual model of self-construction and leasing, with proprietary T-Head chips (focusing on inference) being the key to profit growth. Management emphasizes that expanding the use of proprietary chips is the core lever for long-term margin improvement. Furthermore, the rise of AI agents is driving an increase in the CPU-to-GPU ratio. The growing demand for CPUs and upward pricing will further boost profits, and Alibaba possesses a first-mover advantage with years of technical accumulation and construction experience in the CPU cloud sector.
三、海内外 Al 商业化全面落地，电商与即时零售协同强化增长韧性
3. Comprehensive implementation of domestic and international AI commercialization, with e-commerce and instant retail synergy strengthening growth resilience.
Al商业化双线推进：海外依托中企出海延伸合作+东南亚本地客户 （如 GoTo) 拓展；国内需求从互联网、金融、电动车等早期行业，加速渗透至制造业等传统行业。MaaS 大幅降低中小企业与开发者门槛，助力应用规模化普及。电商端，即时零售聚焦扭亏，通过履约效率提升、订单结构优化改善盈利；与淘天深度协同（同价双配送、共享盒马供应链），显著增强用户粘性与品类扩张能力。
AI commercialization is advancing on two fronts: internationally, it relies on extending cooperation with Chinese enterprises going global and expanding among local Southeast Asian clients (such as GoTo); domestically, demand is accelerating its penetration from early-stage industries like internet, finance, and electric vehicles into traditional sectors such as manufacturing. MaaS significantly lowers the barrier for SMEs and developers, facilitating the scaled adoption of applications. On the e-commerce front, instant retail is focused on turning losses around and improving profitability through enhanced fulfillment efficiency and optimized order structures; deep synergy with Taobao and Tmall (same-price dual delivery, shared Hema supply chain) significantly strengthens user stickiness and category expansion capabilities.
总结
阿里巴巴正以AI驱动云业务、自研算力控成本、海内外商业化+电商协同稳基本盘为核心路径，实现 Al 与云业务的规模化爆发。Maas 的高速增长、自研芯片的利润赋能，叠加零售板块的效率优化，共同支撑集团中长期增长预期。高盛看好其全栈 Al 定位与国际云增长潜力，维持买入评级，港鼓(9988.HK) 12 个月目标价 180 港元；当前鼓价 133, 30 港元，上涨空间 35.0%。
Summary: Alibaba is realizing the scaled explosion of its AI and cloud businesses through core pathways of AI-driven cloud operations, cost control via proprietary computing power, and stabilizing its fundamentals through domestic/international commercialization and e-commerce synergy. The rapid growth of MaaS, the profit empowerment from proprietary chips, combined with efficiency optimization in the retail sector, jointly support the Group's medium-to-long-term growth expectations. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about its full-stack AI positioning and international cloud growth potential, maintaining a "Buy" rating with a 12-month target price of HK180 for the Hong Kong stock (9988.HK); with the current stock price at HK$133.30, this represents an upside potential of 35.0%.
