根据高盛研报资料《SMIC)：AI驱动需求上行趋势；看好产能利用率和平均销售单价；买入》
关于中芯国际最重要的三个观点如下：
The three most important takeaways regarding SMIC are as follows:
一、AI驱动需求高景气，叠加多重利好支撑业绩增长
I. AI-driven demand boom, coupled with multiple catalysts supporting earnings growth
AI浪潮是中芯国际2026年核心增长引擎，直接带动配套模拟/逻辑芯片、数据中心电源管理芯片（PMIC）、AI边缘设备（机器人、智能电动车）半导体需求持续走强。
The AI wave serves as SMIC's core growth engine in 2026, directly driving sustained demand for supporting analog/logic chips, data center PMICs, and semiconductors used in AI edge devices (robots, smart EVs).
同时叠加四大利好：海外同行聚焦高端AI芯片，中芯承接主流成熟制程订单；持续扩产释放产能；国内客户出于供应链安全，本土订单激增；高毛利产品（存储、BCD芯片）需求增速超传统产品，产品结构持续优化。2Q26预计营收环比增14%-16%，量价齐升，毛利率维持20%-22%高位。
This is accompanied by four key tailwinds: overseas peers pivoting toward high-end AI chips, leaving SMIC to capture demand for mainstream mature-node processes; sustained capacity expansion unlocking growth; a surge in local orders from domestic customers seeking supply chain security; and faster growth in demand for high-margin products (memory, BCD chips) vs. traditional products, continuously improving product mix. 2Q26 revenue is expected to increase 14%-16% sequentially, driven by both volume and ASP expansion, with gross margin maintaining a high level of 20%-22%.
二、产能持续扩张，折旧压力可控，毛利率稳步修复
II. Continuous capacity expansion, manageable depreciation pressure, and steady gross margin recovery
2026年扩产力度强劲，1Q26资本开支16亿美元（同比+10%），产能新增1.95万片/月（8英寸等效）；全年折旧预计同比增30%，但公司通过高需求产品提价 + 产品结构升级抵消折旧负面影响，保障毛利率稳定。
Capacity expansion remains robust in 2026. 1Q26 capex reached US$1.6 billion (+10% yoy), adding 19.5k wafer/month (8-inch equivalent). Full-year depreciation is expected to rise 30% yoy, but the company will offset the negative impact through price increases on high-demand products and product mix upgrading, thereby stabilizing gross margin.
盈利预测方面，2026-2029年营收小幅上调1%，仅2026年毛利率微降0.6个百分点（至22.1%），2027-2029年毛利率维持稳步上行趋势（24.4%-29.0%），运营效率持续改善。
As for earnings forecasts, 2026-2029E revenue is slightly raised by 1%. 2026E gross margin is trimmed by 0.6 ppt (to 22.1%), while 2027-2029E gross margin maintains a steady upward trend (24.4%-29.0%), with operating efficiency continuing to improve.
三、维持“买入”评级，目标价上调，估值具备吸引力
III. Maintain "Buy" rating, TP raised, attractive valuation
高盛维持中芯国际A/H股“买入”评级，H股目标价135港元（前值134港元），A股目标价243.4元人民币。估值采用贴现市盈率法，H股基于2028年预期市盈率80.7倍、15%权益成本折现；A股基于H股196%的A-H溢价（2024年以来均值）定价。
Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating on both SMIC's A-shares and H-shares. The H-share target price is raised to HK135(fromHK135(fromHK134), and the A-share target price is set at RMB243.4. The valuation adopts the discounted P/E method: for H-shares, based on a 2028E P/E of 80.7x discounted at a 15% cost of equity; for A-shares, priced using the 196% A-H premium (the average since 2024) over the H-share valuation.
当前估值低于历史平均市盈率，叠加长期高增长（2028-2029年净利年均增速37.2%），成长确定性强；核心风险仅为消费电子需求疲软、扩产不及预期、设备材料供应受限，整体投资价值突出。
Current valuation is below historical average P/E, and with strong long-term growth (2028-2029 net profit CAGR of 37.2%), the growth outlook is highly visible. Key risks are limited to weak consumer electronics demand, slower-than-expected capacity expansion, and constraints on equipment/materials supply. Overall investment value is compelling.
总结
高盛坚定看好中芯国际2026-2029年发展，认为AI需求爆发、产能扩张与产品结构升级将驱动公司业绩持续高增。短期折旧压力可控，毛利率稳步修复，长期成长路径清晰。公司当前估值具备吸引力，叠加国内半导体自主可控的长期红利，投资价值显著，维持“买入”评级。
Summary
Goldman Sachs remains bullish on SMIC's development over 2026-2029, believing that AI demand explosion, capacity expansion, and product mix upgrading will drive sustained high earnings growth. Near-term depreciation pressure is manageable, gross margin is gradually recovering, and the long-term growth trajectory is clear. With current valuation attractive, combined with the long-term tailwind of domestic semiconductor self-sufficiency, SMIC offers compelling investment value. Maintain "Buy" rating.
